The general shape of eLearning in 2025
going from 1980 to 1990, 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2010? Things changed, but not
that much. Some trends run their course and some fashions began to look
slightly ridiculous but not entirely. In general we mostly had more of the
same, but better, with a few slices of “new” thrown in for good measure.
the fast paced IT industry, the change was somewhat predictable. The only
exception was the emergence of the web, circa 1994, that took over the world
around 1999. But that’s a “black swan”, a rare event that’s difficult to
development of eLearning in the next 10 years will be more of the same. Some existing
smaller trends will see growth, some older trends will decline, and a few new
trends will emerge in the process (but will still be undeveloped by 2025).
There might be a new “black swan” or (more likely) there won’t be any. In any
case we won’t go into that.
will eLearning be like in 2025? Mobile learning, MOOCs, Gamification,
Instructor-Led Training and Social Learning will dominate. Virtual technologies
and wearables will have their small niche, but nothing to write home about. Oh,
and eLearning will be bigger than the traditional learning industry, and
inseparable from it.
learning, or mLearning for short, will be the dominant mode of eLearning
content consumption. Already, surveys show that Americans rely more on their
smartphones (and tablets) to access the web than on their PCs.
trend will only accelerate as smartphones get more powerful, 4G (and 5G)
connections get more accessible and widespread, and tablets turn into a hybrid
tablet/PC fusion that’s good enough for people to use as their main computer
(e.g. attached to a monitor and keyboard when on their desk).
there are developing countries, were there are enormous populations without
PCs, but with ever more capable mobile phones, and with a huge demand for
education and professional training.
(short for Massive Online Open Courses) is a trend on the rise, with most top
profile universities investing in this area (and countless other educational
institutions, either traditional or online only).
allow for thousands of people to take the same course from the same institution
(and indeed tens or even hundreds of thousands of students are enrolling
simultaneously for courses in the most popular ones, such as MIT’s and
MOOCs now tout their open free access to students, but we are already starting
to see it being complimented with paid-for MOOC-based tuition. Georgia Tech,
for example, began offering a completely MOOC-based master’s degree in computer
free MOOCs wont go away (they would grow and be the first tier to a multi-level
offering by large educational institutions), monetization of MOOCs is
inevitable, and is estimated to create a multi-billion dollar market of
boring class is an ineffective class, then traditional education was always
boring. eLearning fixes some of the issues with that — heck, even not having to
sit down in a classroom for hours listening to a professor’s hypnotic delivery
is a big improvement, but anything to make training even more fun is always
does just that, so it’s no wonder that it caught on like wildfire in the past
few years, or that it’s poised to grow much more in the future.
brings a sense of challenge and competition to learning, far beyond having
students fighting for the better grade. By leveraging gaming themes and
insights from cognitive psychology, gamification adds interaction, strategy
building and immediate feedback to the learning process. These elements
increase not just engagement but also knowledge retention.
future, gamification will be the expected and dominant way of delivering
learning material, with eLearning courses looking more like video games than
books or websites. This will not be limited to kids training either; even
corporate training will include gamification elements.
concludes our first part of our attempt to glimpse into the future of
predict that there will be a new post here next week, covering the future of
Instructor-Led Training, Social Learning and Virtual Reality based training.
tuned and drive your flying cars carefully.